- 02 Jan 2026
📐THE MATH
1. THE REVENUE PILLARS (Unit Economics)
We don't chase foot traffic; we chase Basket Value. By focusing on high-ticket "Concierge" and "OFW" orders, our revenue per delivery is significantly higher than industry averages.
Segment | Local Concierge | OFW Global Fulfillment |
Average Order Value | ₱2,500 | ₱8,000 |
Cost of Goods (75%) | ₱1,875 | ₱6,000 |
Gross Profit per Order | ₱625 | ₱2,000 |
Daily Target Volume | 500 Orders | 100 Orders |
Daily Gross Margin | ₱312,500 | ₱200,000 |
2. THE FIXED COST ADVANTAGE (OpEx)
Unlike traditional supermarkets that must hire more staff as they get bigger, VMH is built for Efficiency at Scale. Our 155-man team is a fixed cost up to 1,500 orders/day.
Monthly Labor Cost (155 Staff): ₱3,875,000 (₱46.5M/Year)
Monthly Tech/Utilities/Fuel: ₱2,500,000
Monthly Marketing/Admin: ₱1,000,000
TOTAL MONTHLY OpEx: ₱7,375,000
3. THE 5-YEAR SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
This table shows how the investment performs under three different market conditions.
Metric | BEAR CASE (60% Target) | BASE CASE (Target) | BULL CASE (120% Target) |
Daily Combined Orders | 360 | 600 | 720 |
Annual Gross Sales | ₱451,350,000 | ₱752,250,000 | ₱902,700,000 |
Annual EBITDA | ₱32,000,000 | ₱81,500,000 | ₱124,000,000 |
EBITDA Margin | 7.1% | 10.8% | 13.7% |
Investor 25% Div. | ₱8,000,000 / yr | ₱20,375,000 / yr | ₱31,000,000 / yr |
Year 5 Valuation | ₱1.1 Billion | ₱2.45 Billion | ₱4.0 Billion |
4. BREAK-EVEN & RISK PROTECTION
Daily Break-Even Point: 340 Orders Total. (At 340 orders, the Gross Margin covers all salaries and utilities. Every order after #341 is pure profit.)
The 18-Month "Safe Zone": Because ₱70,000,000 of the investment is locked in a Salary Escrow, the business has a Zero-Percent Chance of Labor Collapse during the critical first 18 months of market penetration.
5. SCALABILITY: THE "1,500 ORDER" HORIZON
As the Alpha Site matures and we utilize the full capacity of our 155-man team (1,500 orders/day), the Operating Leverage kicks in:
Fixed Costs: Remain at ₱7.4M/month.
Variable Profit: Increases by 250%.
The Result: Net profit margins grow from 10% to 18%+ as the facility reaches full capacity utilization.
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